- Will literature survive? Yes! The form and delivery might change, but literature will be written and published.
- Will paper books survive? Yes, but there will be casualties, with the most likely being some of the less adaptable publishers, libraries and bookshops.
- Will sacred and religious books like the Bible survive in paper forms? I think so. While electronic forms will grow in use, I suspect that we will want to hold on to paper copies too.
- Will scientific journals and reference books survive in paper form? No, I doubt it.
- Will the way we read be changed by e-books? Yes, but we're still not sure what form the changes will take and many of us are doing research on this topic.
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| Two of my grandchildren enjoying reading on my iPad |
- Scientific journals will cease to be produced in paper form within 5-10 years.
- Increasingly, authors will publish e-books themselves, creating major problems for publishers and even bookshops.
- Bookshops will only survive if they change to become places where lovers of books meet, chat, eat, share books (in whatever form) and purchase e-books and paper books as well as associated products. Some are already moving down this path.
- The power of authors will increase as they realise that traditional publishing routes can be circumvented. This is happening already.
- Libraries will survive but in different forms. They will continue to be archives for books and will still act as mediators for readers, but they will also be virtual hubs and gateways for online resources
- Electronic libraries and virtual communities of readers will grow in importance and might well lead to more reading of 'books' not less.
- There will be a different relationship to libraries with readers moving between virtual and 'real' sites for book exchange, discussion and advice; we already see this in universities where our students rarely visit 'real' libraries.
- Children's literature will be much slower to move from paper to e-book formats, and may not make the transition completely. There are obvious challenges here and the book as an object has great significance for the younger reader; durability for the young toddler will also be an issue.
- The importance of the book as an aesthetic object will remain; many of us will still want to hold, smell and stroke books, and visit great libraries like that at St Gallen (see the image below).
How will we ensure that as electronic forms of the book grow, that children (and adults) don't end up just 'playing' with books rather than reading them? I have already signalled in my post on e-picture books that children are easily distracted with e-picture books, and play much more with the interactive elements on electronic books than reading the text (here).
How do we make sure that the reading process isn't changed by electronic books (as it probably is) with detrimental effects for children (in particular) in comprehension, early learning and enjoyment? As well, what might be the impact on 'deep' reading of texts for adults?
How do we ensure the longevity of books? Is there a chance that the life of an electronic book might be substantially less than the paper book? Some of the world's greatest books have survived for over a thousand years; can we be confident that electronic storage will be able to match this? When I visited the medieval library of the Abbey of St Gall (St Gallen in Switzerland) in November I was amazed at the collection of 175,000 books and manuscripts some of which dated from the 7th century. Over 1,000 of their manuscripts have survived for over 1,000 years. I pondered my own inability, due to technology failings (& mould), to read old floppy disks containing the manuscript of my first book, in comparison with my ability to look at a map drawn in 650AD.
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| Part of the library of the Abbey of St Gall (St Gallen, Switzerland) |
While I've voiced some concerns above, I also see great possibilities.
First, the most obvious one is that the Bible is now available free and online in many different languages and in audio forms. Readers also have the ability to increase font size at the touch of a button and translate books from one language to another.
Second, Christian books of all types will be available increasingly at cheaper prices making them more accessible.
Third, authors now have more power to publish and sell or give away their own books if they don't like what publishers do for them. We have seen this already in Christian publishing with people like John Piper making their books available as free downloads.
Fourth, having books available electronically should increase our access to books in all their forms. Many of us marvel at how much easier it is to buy books today thanks to the Internet. Some of us (like me) have already discovered how much faster and cheaper it is to get books delivered to a reader like the iPad or the Kindle.
Fifth, there are now new opportunities to distribute the written word in association with images, sound tracks and supporting video material.
Sixth, having the Bible and biblical reference material available in digital form has changed the way many Christian scholars are able to work, mostly for the better.
Summing Up
There is no doubt that the electronic book is going to increase in popularity in the next few years. This will cause some adjustments for readers. We need to make sure that nothing is lost in this transition and that all of the possibilities I mention above are realised. We have a great opportunity to increase access to the Bible and Christian teaching using electronic books. Rather than seeing the electronic book as a problem I have no doubt that we will embrace it and see its many possibilities. The paper book will still be important, especially for literature, children's books and sacred texts like the Bible, but the way we access books, share them and read them will continue to change.
Related resources & posts
'Can the book survive?' Nikki Barrowclough (HERE)
'Alice', the iPad and new ways to read picture books (HERE)
'Literacy and the iPad: A review of some popular apps' (HERE)
'The electronic book: The death of the book?' (HERE)
'Literacy and the iPad: A second review of children's literature apps' (HERE)
'Are picture books dying?' (HERE)
Posts
3 comments:
Hi Trevor,
Thanks for another excellent post.
Around thirty years ago, someone I worked with suggested that the analogue watch would shortly disappear in favour of the digital variety. About ten years ago, someone at a dinner party at our house predicted the demise of the newspaper in the near future. Yes, plenty of people wear digital watches rather than analogue; and yes, newspaper sales are down. The fact that neither has disappeared, however, points, I think, to the fact that there are certain experiences which have the capacity to invest the lives of those who participate in them with a kind of satisfaction which overrules the merely utilitarian approach to life.
There is no doubt that a digital watch gives a more precise estimate of the time than a pair of hands moving around a dial; and that looking at the Sydney Morning Herald on line is a more efficient way of keeping up with the news than flapping the pages of a broadsheet newspaper to and fro - at the mercy of the elements, if outside. Nevertheless, I cannot imagine that that kind of activity will ever cease to “resonate” at a deeper level, for many people, than does staring at a computer screen (of one kind or another). I am reminded of a moment in the Wim Wenders film, “Wings of Desire”. The main characters are angels (depicted as more or less ordinary-looking people), one of whom yearns to become human: to experience the simple, daily, time-and-space-bound activities of human existence, which he constantly witnesses, but cannot partake of: to taste coffee, to feel heat and cold, and to have fingers “black from reading the newspaper”. Reading (paper) books falls into much the same category: the notion of “curling up on the sofa with a good book and a nice cup of tea” does not seem to resonate in quite the same fashion, if one substitutes “iPad”, “Kindle” or “laptop”, for “book”. To each his own, I suppose…
As you suggest, there will be casualties of the digital age, though by the same token, as you also point out, there have been gains as well as losses (I love biblegateway.com, for instance). As to the notion of the imminent death of the “classic” printed media in general, however, I have to think that reports have been greatly exaggerated.
Regards,
Greg
Yes, thank you Trevor - a very good summary of the issues and also comment on the possibilities. I am mostly in agreement, though I do wonder about younger people and bible knowledge, especially gained by reading the bible in a more systematic way in electronic forms. There does not seem to be much evidence yet for a move in this way from the research I have been involved with. Rather while amazing opportunities exist with technology, social media, computer games and other elements are taking the dominant share of time and energy. I wrote a paper on books and theological libraries raising some issues back in 1998 ‘Mapping the Landscape’ (Keynote address to the 1998 ANZ Theological Library Conference), published in ANZTLA Newsletter, July 1998, and also recently in the CRA Pointers Publication - The End is Nigh? Looking at print based religious publications and the future.(June 2010). I perceive a major difficulty in the future for Christian organisations and agencies will be finding people who will pay for publications. Even e-publications take resources and sometimes salaries to produce, and it is unlikely many present publications will continue to be printed or made available without significant subsidy arrangement, and this comes at a time when church resources, especially in rural areas are becoming more stretched.
Thank you Greg and Peter for your comments.
One point where your comments connect is in relation to reading the Bible online. I agree with Greg that the many online Bible resources have been wonderful and I love using them. But I also wonder what might be the impact if the only way you read the Bible was using Bible Gateway (not that many people would do this) or even a download of the Bible on one's iPhone. There has been little research at this stage on how the reading process is changed by reading books online or on electronic readers. I do worry that some online resources might just make proof texting and other doubtful forms of scholarship easier, while reducing the need to constantly assess the message in its rich biblical context. Could it change the way we read the Bible in less than positive ways? I'm uncertain, but hope not.
In relation to Christian publishing Peter, I suspect it will be harder to have Christian books published in paper form, but it should get easier in eBook forms. I'm not sure what this will mean for us. I suspect good and bad for readers and publishers. To be honest, I constantly find myself frustrated that many good Christian books aren't available in eBook forms yet. Many times late at night I've gone looking for a key book online only to find it isn't available. I hope this changes because it provides the book at a cheaper price and gets it to my iPad in seconds rather than weeks.
On balance, I suspect that Christian books will end up like other specialist books, there will be paper versions for special or classic books, but more online sales (eventually). On your worry about Christians paying for online resources, I think Christians will have to pay for online resources or many won't be there.
Thanks again,
Trevor
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